A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
